This summer I am posting the "best of" The Blunt Bean Counter blog while I
work on my golf game. Today, I am re-posting Part five of my 2014 six part series titled "How Much Money do I Need to Retire? Heck if I Know or Anyone Else Does!" If you have not read this series, the links to each part of the series can be found down the right hand side of my blog, under the retirement section.
I decided to re-post this particular blog post because recently there have been numerous articles discussing whether the 4% withdrawal rate is too high (The 4% withdrawal rule is one of the most commonly accepted rule of
thumb retirement strategies. Simply put, the rule says that if you have
an equally balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, you should be able
to withdraw 4% of your retirement savings each year, adjusted for
inflation, and those savings will last for 30-35 years).
One of the reasons retirement experts are concerned about using the 4% rule is that our longevity continues to increase. Longevity is just one of the many factors that can impact not only your withdrawal rate in retirement, but the funding of your nest egg.
Today's post discusses these various factors and how the unpredictable nature of most of these factors, make it virtually impossible to determine a definitive retirement number and is why I say the "Heck if I Know or Anyone Else Does" how much money you need to retire.

Your Longevity - The Ultimate Wildcard
It goes without
saying, that if we knew who long we would live, retirement planning
would be a lot simpler. Unfortunately, the best we can do is plan based
on longevity studies and family medical history. The Vanguard paper I
referenced in Part 3 of this series cites such as study by the Society
of Actuaries which found:
“there is an 80% chance that
at least one spouse will live to age 85, a 55% chance that one will
live to age 90 and 25% chance one spouse will reach 95.”
In
Canada, the average male lives to approximately age 79 and the average
female lives to approximately 84. Based on the above, your retirement
planning should at a minimum assume one spouse will live to at least 95
years old.
Inflation – Grasping for the unknown
The rate of
inflation can drastically alter your retirement savings and consumption.
An economic environment of low market returns and high inflation can
severely impact the funds you accumulate to fund your retirement and the
real returns you achieve in retirement. Conversely, interest rates tend
to rise with inflation, providing a potential buffer if you lock in
higher interest rates and inflation subsides (I remember Canada Savings
Bonds paying 19.5% interest in 1981 when inflation was around 12.5%,
however, inflation was back down to 4.5% by the end of 1983 and many
people were very pleased they had CSB's or GIC's paying very high rates
of interest for many years). An average inflation rate of 2% will mean
that the $50,000 you expect to spend in retirement in 2014 dollars will
require approximately $61,000 in spending in 2024.

One
of the criticisms of the 4% rule is that the models cumulative
inflation adjustment may force you to take larger and larger withdrawals
without regard to your actual spending requirements. Substantive
evidence for this criticism is provided below by David Blanchett, the
head of retirement research at Morningstar in Chicago.
In this
Wall Street Journal article
by Kelly Greene, Mr. Blanchett said the following about the correlation
between spending and inflation. "Pretty much every paper you read about
retirement assumes that spending increases every year by [the rate of]
inflation." Ms. Greene went on to say that "when he analyzed government
retiree-spending data, he found otherwise: Between the ages of 65 and
90, spending decreased in inflation-adjusted terms. Most models would
assume that someone spending $50,000 the first year of retirement would
need $51,500 the second year (if the inflation rate were 3%). But Mr.
Blanchett found that the increase is closer to 1%, which has big
implications over decades, 'because these changes become cumulative over
time,' he says".
Sequence of Returns – Bull vs Bear Markets upon your Retirement
The
various studies that support a 4% retirement withdrawal, included
periods of both bear and bull markets. If you are lucky enough to retire
at the beginning of a bull market, your retirement funding will be
drastically different than if you retire at the beginning of a bear
market. William Bergen in his original 1994 article said:
“This
is a powerful warning (particularly appropriate for recent retirees)
not to increase their rate of withdrawal just because of a few good
years early in retirement. Their “excess returns” early may be needed to
balance off weaker returns later.”
It is interesting
to note that Mr. Bergen showed that even if you started retirement in
the great depression or in the recession of 1973-1974 (which also
included a period of high inflation); your money would still have lasted
over 30 years, because of the power of stock market recoveries.
However, Moshe Milevsky and Anna Abaimova in this
report
for MetLife (see page 4 of the report, page 7 of the PDF), very clearly
reflect the dramatic difference in retirement outcomes you will have
when you have negative market returns early in your retirement vs later
in your retirement.
In this
blog, Wade Pfau states that:
“
In
fact, the wealth remaining 10 years after retirement combined with the
cumulative inflation during those 10 years can explain 80 percent of the
variation in a retiree's maximum sustainable withdrawal rate after 30
years.”
Thus, prudent planning would be to start your retirement following a bear market :).
Registered vs. Non-Registered Accounts
The allocation
of your retirement funds between registered (RRSPs, LIRAs,
Pensions, etc.) and non-registered accounts (bank, investment, TFSA,
etc.) will have a significant impact upon your cash flow in retirement.
If you consider all the money in those accounts as capital, the capital
in the registered accounts is fully taxable, meaning that if you are a
high income tax rate taxpayer, you may be paying as much as 46% or
higher upon the withdrawal of those funds. For non-registered accounts,
the withdrawal of capital is tax free. This issue raises the much
debated question of TFSA vs. RRSP as you accumulate your retirement nest
egg and for those who own corporations, the issue of salary vs.
dividend (see my three part series "
Salary or Dividend? A Taxing Dilemma for Small Corporate Business Owners" from last year on this issue and my
2014 Update). The
drawdown of your RRSP/RRIF and/or funds from your holding company in a
tax effective manner requires a detailed analysis of your specific
situation and cannot be addressed here in a generic manner; however,
suffice to say, it is an important cash flow issue.
Home Sweet Home
Some planners suggest you try and exclude your home from your retirement savings and
have it serve as a back-up for any retirement shortfall. However, for
many people, part of their retirement will include at least the
incremental benefit of downsizing their home. For others, their
retirement will only be funded by selling their home and moving into an
apartment or reverse mortgaging their home.
Spending in Retirement - Sharpen your Pencil
If
you are diligent about this process, you should be able to at least
determine a ballpark number for your anticipated spending upon
retirement. The spending wildcard for many people is travel. Good health
will allow for years of travel, while poor health will not only
restrict how much you can travel, but could lead to significant medical
costs. In a perfect retirement model you would factor in greater
spending as you begin retirement and smaller spending as you grow older.
In addition you need to consider occasional and lump sum expenditures.
The
aforementioned David Blanchett suggests many peoples spending in
retirement maybe overstated by as much as 20% in traditional retirement
models. Mr. Blanchett details these views in a very interesting paper on
“
Estimating the True Cost of Retirement”.
You
may also wish to consider your spending in context of the three stages
of retirement Michael Stein CFP came up with in his book “
The Prosperous Retirement, Guide to the New Reality". In his book Michael suggests there are 3 stages of retirement:
Go-Go
Stage- Retirees maintain the same lifestyle and their spending remains
fairly constant with their spending pre-retirement, essentially because
they still consider themselves “young” and travel extensively.
Slow-Go
Stage - Stein says that between the ages of 70-84, your budget will
decline 20-30% as your body is not quite able to keep up with your mind
and your intended activities or you just become weary of airports and
trains.
No-Go Stage - As you reach 85+, health issues
tend to cause you to restrict travel and you are tied to a certain
place, be it your home or a retirement home.
Pensions - The Older you are, the more you Appreciate them
If
there is one thing this series has revealed to me, is that I truly
underestimated the worth of a defined benefit pension plan. I had never
really considered the possibility of purchasing an annuity in
retirement, however, the more calculations I undertook, the more I
realized that without a company pension plan, it may be prudent to
consider purchasing at least a small annuity in my retirement. Moshe
Milevsky and Alexandra MacQueeen suggest that annuities should be used to
“pensionize” part of
your retirement funds and that it may be worth the piece of mind to
forgo potential growth of your nest egg to provide some comfort that you
will not outlive your retirement funds.
If you have a
pension plan that covers off most of your retirement spending needs,
you are afforded the freedom to take greater equity risk in retirement;
since you can withstand stock market swings, knowing your day to day
costs are covered off by your pension. Those without a pension face the
dilemma of whether to annuitize some portion of their retirement funds
or not.
Healthcare coverage - Will we be Fully Covered in 25 Years
As
Canadians, we assume we will always have full medical coverage. But who
knows if the government will have the money in twenty-five years to
support a top-heavy population. In addition, if your health deteriorates
and you require private care, all your retirement funds could be eaten
up by those costs.
Interest Rates – Will they ever Rise?
People have been
expecting interest rates to rise for several years. Many of those same
people now think the US government will be forced to keep rates low for
the foreseeable future. Selfishly, higher interest rates would be
welcomed by many people in or near retirement. A spike in interest
rates would likely cause some disgruntled stock market investors to
re-allocate their equity investments to fixed income instruments.
Inheritances - No One Plans for an Inheritance do They?
Baby
boomers will inherit a massive amount of money in the next twenty or so
years. However, the size of individual inheritances will fluctuate
widely based on the longevity of their parents. I wrote a blog a while
back on
whether you should plan for an anticipated inheritance.
I suggested that if you are certain you will inherit money, you should
at least consider factoring a discounted amount of your potential
inheritance into your retirement planning.
Lifestyle in Retirement
For Canadians who live in
large cities, have expensive homes and lifestyles, an easy solution to
an underfunded retirement is to downsize/sell your home and move to a
less expensive city. Whether you are willing to do that is another
question.
Evolving into retirement - Keeping the Income Stream Alive
Stan
Tepner, CPA, CA, MBA, CFP, TEP, First Vice-President & investment
advisor with CIBC Wood Gundy and an advisor to some of my clients, told
me "he often finds many people consider retirement an absolute event.
One day you are working and the next you’re golfing". He adds "that more
and more people 'evolve' into retirement. They may shift into part-time
employment or self-employment. This shift may be required for financial
reasons or because you wish to keep your mind sharp. Either way, the
extra income will assist in funding your retirement needs, especially if
you have a savings shortfall because of poor market returns or you have
just miscalculated your actual retirement needs".